Why your world will get a whole lot smaller

Via Bill St. Arnaud, who cites a more extensive article in the Globe and Mail, on a new book by Jerry Rubin, former chief strategist at CICB World Markets.

Book title is: Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.

Excerpt:

“Mr. Rubin has taken his long-standing forecast that inevitably declining production and rising demand will send oil prices inexorably higher – over $200 (U.S.) a barrel by 2012 or earlier, just for a start – and imagines how the world will have to change to adjust to such a reality.

“ I think, ironically, it’s going to be a return to the past … in terms of the re-emergence of local economies. ”— Jeff Rubin

Like many oil crisis prophets, Mr. Rubin is a disciple of “peak oil” theory – the concept that world oil production is near its peak, and is destined to a long, slow decline, as existing low-cost oil fields dry up and new supplies become harder and more expensive to unlock.

But unlike many previous peak oil books, which typically don’t get much past “we’re in big trouble,” Mr. Rubin’s conclusions are refreshingly optimistic. His world of the oil-starved future, at least for Western societies, looks a lot like the bygone years of our fond memory, where people work and vacation nearer to home, eat locally grown foods and buy locally produced goods, and suburban sprawl is replaced by revitalized cities.

“I think it will really restructure the economy in ways that people haven’t even begun to imagine,” he said. “But I think, ironically, it’s going to be a return to the past … in terms of the re-emergence of local economies.”
Indeed, the book’s title is derived from this central argument – that expensive fuel will force a reversal of globalization, as long-distance trade becomes increasingly expensive and impractical. The only alternative may be a relentless cycle of economic shocks triggered by oil price surges.

“Chances are, we’re going to bang our head on this oil constraint very soon in an economic recovery, unless certain things change. And I don’t think we’re going to have to wait five years to test that Rubin hypothesis. I think in the next six to 12 months you’re going to see that,” he said.

“There’s a lot of historical context to suggest that we can change, that things have evolved in response to economic signals,” he said. “But in order to change … we’re going to have to rearrange a whole lot more things than perhaps we recognize.”

1 Comment Why your world will get a whole lot smaller

  1. AvatarPace

    Wait, I’m confused. Wouldn’t that be our world gettng bigger? When people talk about increased communications technology and ease of travel, they say “The world is shrinking” because we can get anywhere fairly easily. But this article is talking about travel becoming more difficult and people focusing on the local more. So wouldn’t that be “The world is enlarging”?

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