This musing was provoked by, and is therefore partially in response to, Michel Bauwen’s post on “late K” capitalism (http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-strategies-in-the-late-k-stage-of-globalization/2010/06/06 ).

“Post-” or “late” periods are characterized by the following elements.

1) being ontologically dependent on the preceding era, in particular, its terms and definitons.
2) being “critical” in nature, since they are expressions of what is unraveling, rather than what is emerging.

By contrast, “pre-” or “early” periods are characterized by the following elements:

1) being ontologically dependent on an as yet unrealized era to come, seeking to reveal its terms and definitions.
2) being “affirmative” in nature, since they are expressions of what will happen, rather than what exists.

So, for example, “post”-modernism offers a critique of modernism, and even interrogates its key process and terms. Similarly, “pre”-industrialism only makes sense relative “industrialism.”

“Pre-” descriptions are often invoked by writers in the non-“pre-” era as a way of explaining “how we got here” typically coupled with a story of progress. “Post-” descriptions are often invoked by writers who want to distance themselves from the failings or contradictions present in a current condition.

If we accept that late/post anything is simply early/pre the next thing, then the key concept to recognize is that these conditions demonstrate a period of transition but not of transformation, when current patterns are in decline or outright collapse, but existing activity has yet to coalesce into a stable structure.

Transformation, then, is the moment at which the system crosses a critical threshold and becomes a self-organized and self-sustaining entity. Feedbacks and cycles solidify, and all of the elements “snap” into place.

If you blow into a balloon it will inflate, but it will also push back at you. When you can no longer maintain the pressure, the balloon will deflate. If you hyper-inflate an economy by 1) over-producing, and 2) over-consuming, both of which generate vast amounts of pressure and waste, it is inevitable that collapse will occur. The global economy of “late K” (late capitalism) is simply that process, finally being played out.

The current state of global civilization, still only a transition, will, I believe, result in a transformation to panarchy, the seeds of which are already present in networks of cooperating individuals. Panarchy is forming but has yet to appear as a fully sustainable new structure for civilization.