Complex Systems and the Energy Commons

In this article, we look at the future of the Energy Commons, and how using a complex adaptive systems lens can lead to effective solutions. As an example, I’m going to demonstrate how this method can lead us to a solution I call “swarm micro-solar.”

Complex adaptive systems as a lens tells us that the dynamic energy solution of the future should:

• be made up of many small components
• be fluid and flexible, utilizing component diversity
• be aware of and respond to its environment, by being mobile

From a complex systems perspective, we can predict the properties of a future solution even though we do not yet know the details. We can know that a marble in a bowl will settle at the bottom even when we cannot predict the specific path it will take. We can know that a percentage of a population will become adults even when we cannot know which ones will survive.

Similarly, we can understand that “small pieces loosely joined” should be more efficient even though we do not yet know precisely how. The reason this works is because all complex systems exhibit instances of deeper patterns found in the universe.

Disaggregate the Solar Panel

Our first understanding above was:

1. be made up of many small components

So, take, for instance, the solar panel. A single solar panel converts solar energy into usable electricity but suffers from the loss of some of that energy as heat. Solar panels don’t work when they exceed their tolerance thresholds for heat buildup.

Heat radiation occurs on the edges of the solar panel, so more edge length means more radiation and a cooler system. It just so happens that an array of smaller panels:

• covers nearly the same area, and so generates about the same amount of energy, and
• has significantly more edge length and so radiates heat more effectively and can run for longer.

In addition, these smaller pieces can be individually enabled not only to produce energy but also to store it, using individual mechanisms (such as batteries). Energy could be “uploaded” into larger storage networks when the individual units are in range of an upstream connection to the Energy Commons. Since the swarm components are connected horizontally, only one component would have to be in range in order for the entire system to communicate upstream.

Decenter the Solar Array

Our second understanding above was:

2. be fluid and flexible, utilizing component diversity

So the next step would be to detach the entire solar array from it’s “center” and instead connect the parts directly to each other. There are two ways to operationalize this:

• connect them together physically into a “mesh” or “net”
• connect them together virtually into an information network

Physically connecting them could be advantageous if you needed them to exist as a single unit for some reason. More useful however would be to connect them digitally into a “swarm.” A swarm of panels could communicate information about the sunlight they are converting, local conditions, etc. Moreover, you could even have the units send energy to one another to balance the energy storage. In other words, a unit that has more storage available could store energy for one that has less storage available.

The effect of horizontal connectivity is to make the entire system function like a brain. The swarm could essentially “rewire” itself by monitoring inequalities in the system and balancing its members’ behavior accordingly.

Detach the Swarm

Our third understanding was:

3. be aware of and respond to its environment, by being mobile

Solar panels need sunlight. The earth rotates. The complex adaptive systems lens suggests that the system should be able to perceive its environment and adjust its collective behavior accordingly. For example, slime molds exist as individual cells, but when changes in resource conditions demand, those cells come together to form a multi-cellular organism, which is mobile, and can move elsewhere to a better resource environment.

So, too, can our solar array. If it is a flying drone array, then it could be positioned in the sky as an actual swarm.

• It could move away from clouds or other obstacles, and even orbit the planet in order to avoid ever being on the dark side. A swarm of swarms, all autonomous but capable of cooperation and communication, could effectively perceive their environment and adjust accordingly to target better environments.
• Also, the diversity of the units would enable them to behave differently as individuals. Each unit could angle itself into the sun, or adjust to wind conditions, etc. Because every component adjusts its own behavior in response to every other component, individual behaviors would create systemic effects. Just as a swarm can fly around obstacles without a leader, so, too, could a micro-solar swarm dynamically adjust to changes in its environment.

D-words and Micro-Solar Swarms

This article has demonstrated how using complex adaptive systems as a lens can lead to an innovative solution in the Energy Commons. We focused on a language of:

1. Disaggregate
2. Decenter
3. Detach

There are many other facets to a fully-developed and organically evolving Energy Commons. There are other solutions, and there are also other commons (food, things, etc.).

We gain a significant advantage when we realize that solutions across these commons exhibit the patterns seen in complex adaptive systems, and when we focus on a “pattern language” for those future solutions.

I hope this article contributes to that effort in some small way.

Read More:
If you would like to learn more about robot swarms, take a look at:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/the-bees-of-the-future-that-can-pollinate-and-save-disaster-victims

To engage with the original please go to Solving the Energy Commons with Micro-Solar Swarms by Paul B. Hartzog

The post Solving the Energy Commons with Micro-Solar Swarms appeared first on P2P Foundation.

“Last Monday 6 community members on President St in the Brooklyn Park Slope neighborhood created the first local marketplace for renewable energy on a blockchain network. They individually invested in solar panels and created a community to sell their excess energy called Brooklyn Microgrid.

Briefly, Blockchain is….

A blockchain is a decentralized network that allows for exchange of information and value directly between peers without third parties (think banks or tech companies). Each transaction or interaction is transparently recorded and forms a chain of history that cannot be altered in the future. Trust is thus relocated from centralized service providers, those banks or tech companies, to the peers themselves, allowing people to build their reputations as they transact and participate in blockchain marketplaces.

Most people will interact with a blockchain marketplace through an interface that looks similar to most web applications today. The Brooklyn Microgrid community is using an open energy platform, called TransActiveGrid, developed by ConsenSys and LO3 energy.

TransactiveGrid uses the Ethereum blockchain to record the production of each community members’ solar array. TransActiveGrid is comprised of smart contracts (agreements between peers) that exist on the blockchain. The blockchain is a trusted ledger that all members of the community can access at any time. These particular smart contracts transform the excess produced energy into renewable credits that other community members can purchase.

These smart contracts can be verified by anyone with Internet access, ensuring the distribution of trust. Here is a screenshot of the TransActiveGrid contract that I accessed from my web browser. I did not need a special account or special permission to find it. It is written in a computer programming language called Solidity that is intended for writing smart contracts on Ethereum. Much of it is plain English, and it’s pretty simple to decipher at least the most important information (here the contract is defining the parameters of the renewable energy credit).

From Renewable Energy Corporations to Community Solar

Each of these community members were previously using the service Green Mountain Energy as an alternative to fossil fuels. Green Mountain and other similar companies market themselves as ‘carbon offset’, meaning they run large wind farms mostly in places like Idaho and Texas, and then sell these credits to conscious consumers (or you can pay a higher price for production from a wind farm in NY). Con Edison contracts Green Mountain as a supplier behinds the scenes, and you still pay a bill to Con Edison.

While it is a step in the sustainable direction, this process is not transparent, not local, and not community-centric. Individuals trust in Con Edison and Green Mountain to actually produce the amount of renewable energy they claim, and produce it where they claim, and no local peer-2-peer market exists.

In the Brooklyn Microgrid community, there is no need for Green Mountain Energy. Community members produce their own renewable energy, and incentive each other to purchase any excess, creating a local marketplace. These six neighbors invested in their solar panels at separate times over the past five years. Today there are two large panels on one roof with smart meters that monitor each of the neighbors portion of solar energy production.

From Money to Mutual Credit Systems

The current implementation uses Paypal for member to send US dollars for the purchase of credits from their neighbor (See the paypal email popup in the photo of the first transaction that occurred on April 11th, a purchase of 195 renewable energy credits). The Brooklyn Micgrod community set a price of their credits based upon the comparable Green Mountain price:

7 cents per 1 credit of renewable energy = 1 kW-h.

However this particular smart contract has an owner who has complete control over adding community members to the marketplace and adding the smart meters associated with each community member. This implementation centralizes the regulation of price and power of the marketplace with one person. In order to develop a viable cooperative economic model, we have to insert a governance component that revolves around human decision making.

Towards Community Governed Resources

When we define the community, the rules, and the regulation of price, then a new model arises. Let’s imagine this community marketplace has quarterly governance meetings to govern resource consumption and build trust amongst the members. The community can exist in a state of credits and debits to one another, without needing the instantaneous paypal transaction.

A community comes together and agrees that their solar production and consumption will constitute a bank. The smart contracts on the blockchain record the transactions, and credit or debit member accounts. At that quarterly time period there will be a netting of accounts. The necessary payments will be issued at that time, and the community members can come up with their own protocol of payments (e.g. paypal, cash, barter, or carrying over all credits & debits into the next period).

In the example below there are five community members that constitute the bank. They have agreed a renewable credit is 7 cents per kw-H in a smart contract. They have decided that the community member who produces the most is allowed to sell first in a smart contract. So Ashley pays 40 x 7 cents, and Joan pays 50 x 7 cents. That amount is distributed first all to Rob, and then the remaining 15 credits to Lucy. Thus Lucy carries over 5 extra credits she is owed into the next time period. The actual transfer of the funds is up to the community members for now. Over time we will build some cool software to improve this exchange process— but the trusted and transparent ledger is the foundation for cooperative economics.

Since no money is required to be exchanged at the moment of transaction, the system incentivizes a greater degree of trust that builds over time. This mutual credit system is tried and tested in communities worldwide over time without blockchain (check out Gwendolyn Hallsmith and her food bank work in Montpelier, VT). It works when the boundaries of a community and the rules of the marketplace are clearly defined.

If trust is present in the community, perhaps there is no need for an additional reputation system to penalize people who don’t pay or break rules. However for larger communities there will be a need for a reputation system that will limit or block the participation of members who do not pay their owed amounts, or that break rules the community has designated.

This community can set rules like :

• community members’ accounts cannot fall below -100 credits
• community members’ accounts cannot rise above +100 credits
• renewable energy credit = X cents
• community members must produce X to be a member
• each transaction builds the users reputation within that community
• more reputation for producing than consuming
• community members must attend 3/4 quarterly governance meetings
• changes to the price of the credit requires 3/4 consensus (possibly using a system like Boardroom).

By having the quarterly meetings we build trust because we know that our transactions have a social component. We know we will be accountable to members of our community for our consumption of resources. And we know the faces of the neighbors with whom we will be sharing our energy consumption. We start building community through our relationships of exchange. These economic models that ensure accountability to our communities are an integral thread of how we move from a world with unsustainable economic consumption practices to one that is considerate of living in accordance with the actual resources we have?—?equitably.

The Value of a Provable Reputation: Sustainable Business

The cost of solar panel installation for each community member costs around $30,000, but subsidies from the NY State and the Federal Government usually end up in a tax rebate of around $23,000. There is an upfront capital requirement, and a desire to get off fossil fuels as primary motivation, sure. Yet these community members are simultaneously starting to prove their reputation attached to their community identity by participating in a marketplace as renewable prosumers on a trusted ledger. If we imagine a world in which this reputation will start to become valuable, then an incentivize emerges that wasn’t previously available. #untappedvalue

Lets take triple bottom line?—?people, planet, profit?—?a popular concept, even in the venture capital landscape. Bcorps, sustainable business, generational investments, and social entrepreneurship are all attempts to capture this value. This proposed community governed microgrid model actually proves reputation of renewable energy producers and consumers in a marketplace. If we agree that triple bottom line is an asset in the marketplaces of today, we can begin to intuit how valuable provable reputation will be in the future.

For now this system can only exist in NYC as a complement to the Con Edison monopoly. The community members are still using Con Edison as a backup when they don’t produce enough or can’t purchase excess credits. But it’s a step towards developing cooperative models for sharing of resources. In this Park Slope microgrid, community members know each other and trust already exists. However the model can be applied to other community economies where trust is not already present by using reputation systems.

Looking into the future, we envision communities of microgrids that start producing their own renewable energy. These communities can then transact between each other, forming larger communities comprised of overlapping and smaller ones.

Cooperative Economics

At Future Culture we’re currently exploring the art of reputation and developing reputation-based complex barter systems.

This cooperative economic model demonstrates governance of a shared resource with human checkpoints. Our model is based upon multidisciplinary research and taking the first steps towards blockchain implementation, with How I Touch Technology and our other activist collaborators in Sullivan County NY. We are continuing to work out the necessary criteria for community economies to ethically exist on blockchain.

Implementation of blockchain for sharing of resources will require experts who understand the technology to work with communities to create their own governance systems, placing the values of each community at the center of each process. Only then can we begin to develop platforms with easy to use templates for communities worldwide, and develop a network of implementation and training experts. The blockchain space will mature only as we begin to consider the human components of an economy that are vital for any proposed system to thrive.”

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