Data has been collected since this was uploaded and this presentation has evolved. I now have data to show that the year 2005 was a turning point. Oil supply became inelastic and at the same time Chinese demand for raw materials accelerated. Metal prices (Au, Ag, Ni, Pb, Cu, Fe, Zn, etc) spiked and became very volatile. The 2008 economic correction of the GFC did not resolve these issues and return metal prices to the levels prior to 2005 nor did it create a new level of stability. This means that the underlying issues were not addressed and market speculators were not the controlling force.
We are now 8-9 years into an era of industrial transformation. I believe this is a signature for the start of transformation as a consequence of Peak Oil. All of our resources are following this pattern. Peak oil is certainly not the only problem we are faced with. Our financial and economic systems are far too fragile and disconnected from reality to engage in the required industrial reform.
There are some technological solutions which might help if applied correctly. The real constraint is now time. We are out of time. We really need 10-20 years to manage the transition after the political will has been established. These problems here now. Current political leadership are engaging in squabbling over the dregs of what resources are left and maintaining the status quo. We are using the last of the easy to get resources, to do the equivalent of straightening bananas. All of this indifference does suggest a certain outcome.
Thanks for posting that, Øyvind. Simon Michaux has been a big influence on my thinking about peak oil and mining as well. His lecture on peak mining is a real eye-opener and highly recommended.