P2P Foundation

Without timely implementation of mitigation strategies, the world will soon run out of all kinds of affordable mass products and services:

Many warnings in the past of impending metal minerals shortages have been proven wrong because of the availability of cheap and abundant fossil fuels. Every time the ratio of reserves to production of a certain metal mineral became uncomfortably small, the reserves of that mineral were being revised upwards because it became economically feasible to extract metals from the so-called reserve base or resource base. Reserves are defined as those ores that can be economically extracted at the time of determination and the term reserves need not signify that extraction facilities are in place and operative. The decades-old paradigm which states that reserves will be revised upwards (to include lower ore grades) as soon as supply gaps are looming, is no longer valid without cheap and abundant energy. Mining and extraction (concentration) consume huge amounts of energy. The energy required for extraction grows exponentially with lower ore grades.

The above is the gist of an important article in the Oil Drum, by André Diederen. a senior ‘defense’ research scientist at TNO, Holland.

Here’s the abstract of that important article on Metal minerals scarcity:

“If we keep following the ruling paradigm of sustained global economic growth, we will soon run out of cheap and plentiful metal minerals of most types. Their extraction rates will no longer follow demand. The looming metal minerals crisis is being caused primarily by the unfolding energy crisis. Conventional mitigation strategies including recycling and substitution are necessary but insufficient without a different way of managing our world’s resources. The stakes are too high to gamble on timely and adequate future technological breakthroughs to solve our problems. The precautionary principle urges us to take immediate action to prevent or at least postpone future shortages. As soon as possible we should impose a co-ordinated policy of managed austerity, not only to address metal minerals shortages but other interrelated resource constraints (energy, water, food) as well. The framework of managed austerity enables a transition towards application (wherever possible) of the ‘elements of hope’: the most abundant metal (and non-metal) elements. In this way we can save the many critical metal elements for essential applications where complete substitution with the elements of hope is not viable. We call for a transition from growth in tangible possessions and instant, short-lived luxuries towards growth in consciousness, meaning and sense of purpose, connection with nature and reality and good stewardship for the sake of next generations.”