Excerpted from Ryan Whitwam:
“No one can deny that 3D printing is really cool from a purely technological standpoint. The idea that physical objects can be rapidly fabricated from digital files is fascinating, and could change the world. However, it’s very possible that we’ve all gotten so caught up in the 3D printing hype that our collective hopes have been unduly raised. 3D printing is going to spur a legitimate manufacturing revolution; just not in your home.
It is true that the technology is rapidly coming down in price. You can get a MakerBot these days for about $2000. In the next few years this kind of consumer 3D printer could get down to a few hundred bucks if you buy smart on Black Friday. Just because something is affordable, though, doesn’t mean people actually have a use for it.
The overwhelming majority of homes don’t need a 3D printer, and that’s not really going to change. Most of us barely even use our 2D printers anymore! If you look at the kinds of objects being printed in these low-cost 3D printers you will see art projects, semi-professional design work, and knickknacks. Printing an MP3 player shaped like a cassette tape might be neat (I think so), but it’s not an example of practical at-home use.
In the next few years, I suspect we’re going to see disillusionment with the idea of owning a 3D printer. The machinery will be cheaper and more capable, perhaps integrating a larger array of materials, but most people still won’t have a real use for them. If you don’t want one now, you probably won’t want one in a few years.
PrintingThere’s always the hope that 3D printing will provide a way to fabricate replacement parts when something breaks or wears out. This might even come up for you occasionally, but how often? A few times a year? It’s probably not worth keeping a 3D printer in the house for those rare occasions. We live in a world where the things we buy are increasingly becoming non-repairable; just look at how much harder car and computer repairs have become. You won’t be able to fix as many things in the future, but 3D printing might have a role in making those non-repairable items in the first place.
The way this technology changes everything isn’t in your garage, but in local manufacturing. When 3D printing hits the point that complicated items can be easily created, that’s how it’s going to be used in industry. Yes, this technology will trickle down to the future equivalent of the MakerBot, but it won’t ever be as good as what you can get if you head down to your local professional 3D printer or hardware store.”
In the next few years, I suspect we’re going to see disillusionment with the idea of owning anything. Of course 3D printers are more likely to catch on in local tool libraries than in everyone’s home. Just like everything else.
Isn’t smaller scale production itself likely to lead to more modularity, and hence easier repairability?
good point!
I agree with Tom, in that we are likely to see more modularity. We can expect a change in product design, to design for durability and modularity, instead of the current design for obsolescence.
In the growing Open Hardware movement, this is clearly the case. Furthermore we can observe the growing outrcry for the Right to Repair
For the rest, I think Ryan makes a good point. Not all of us need or want a 3d printer in our homes. Instead, we want access to such machinery when we have the occasional need. We can imagine to have such printers in the local cultural centre, neighbourhood hangout, fablab, hackspace, microfactory, etc.